Makihara (002714)： The performance is affected by the sluggish pig price and the future benefit volume and price go up
Makihara (002714): The performance is affected by the sluggish pig price and the future benefit volume and price will go up
1. The event company released its 2018 annual report.
2. Our analysis and judgment 1) The performance is affected by the pig price and the expenses are well controlled. In 2018, the company achieved operating income of 133.
880,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.
32%, net profit attributable to mother 5.
2 trillion, down 78 a year.
01%, net profit after returning to mother 4.
62 trillion, down 80 a year.
The sharp decline in the company’s net profit attributable to mothers was mainly due to the sluggish pig prices, with the national average live pig price12.
98 yuan / kg, down 15 in the future.
41%, the company’s average hog sales price is 11.
61 yuan / kg, down 19 later.
96%. Although the number of pigs slaughtered has increased, the increase in income has been lower than the increase in costs.
The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin is 9.
82%, a decrease of 19 over the same period last year.
Period cost accounted for 8.
16%, increasing by 0 every year.
14pct, the overall cost is well controlled, and the company has overlapping management capabilities.
Dividend plan for 2018: 0 for every 10 shares.
5 yuan (including tax).
2) Continuing the development strategy of the “Makihara model”, the rapid growth of live pigs in the slaughterhouse has maintained a growth of 1,101 in 2018.
10,000 heads, an increase of 52 in ten years.
14%, of which 1010 are commercial pigs.
40,000 heads, breeding pigs 3.
80,000 heads, the annual growth rate is +92.
The company’s live pig production volume maintained a rapid growth. At the end of 18, the surplus of fixed 武汉夜网论坛 assets and construction in progress was 172.
250,000 yuan, an annual increase of 42.
41%, it is expected that the company will produce 13-15 million live pigs in 2019, a continuous increase of 18%.
1% to 36.
3) The price of pigs is on the upward channel, and the company’s benefit volume rises on March 22, 2019. The price of live pigs is 15.
3 yuan / kg, a 35% increase from the price of the second bottom.
2%.Considering the historically unrepeatable nature of the African swine fever epidemic, the current capacity situation is more serious than at any time in the past, and the gap between supply and demand has increased.
In the case that the epidemic situation cannot be effectively controlled, we believe that the current cycle will be significantly longer than the historical situation, and the high price will also break the historical high.
According to Boya and News, Henan pig price is 15.
3 yuan / kg, which is higher than the national average price of 2.
4%, the company will significantly benefit from the high price of pigs, the advantages of rapid growth in slaughter volume, optimistic about future performance growth.
Investment suggestion The pig price is on the upward channel, and the amount of live pigs on the stack is increasing rapidly, and the performance growth can be expected.
We expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 2019-2021.
39 yuan, corresponding to 44/14/10 times the PE, the first coverage, given a “recommended” rating.
Risks indicate that pig prices are not up to expectations, disease risk, and policy risks.