Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) 2019 Annual Results Express Commentary： 2019 revenue maintains rapid growth and profit exceeds market expectations
Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) 2019 Annual Results Express Commentary: 2019 revenue maintains rapid growth and profit exceeds market expectations
I. Overview of the event The company released a performance report on February 6th and expects to achieve operating income of 119 in 2019.
14 trillion, +26 a year.
57%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies20.
24 ppm, +37 a year.
64%, budget benefit 2.
Second, analyze and judge that the revenue growth rate is in line with expectations, the profit growth rate is slightly higher than expected, and the company’s profitability is strong. In 19 years, the company realized revenue / attributable net profit of 119.
24 ppm, at least +26.
57% / + 37.
64%, revenue growth in line with our budget expectations, profit growth was slightly higher than expected.
In Q4, the company achieved revenue / net profit attributable to its mother in a single quarter.
28 trillion, +13 for each year.
02% / + 61.
The growth rate of the profit side of Q4 continues the high growth trend since Q3. The first is the accelerated expansion of markets outside the province, targeted marketing strategies, and an increase in the proportion of mid- to high-end product sales.
Fenjiu’s products are selling well, and the 深圳桑拿网 combination of high and low levels has continued to improve the sales structure. Fenjiu’s products have been selling well in 19 years to ensure the company’s overall performance.
In terms of high-end products, the blue and white 30 is mainly for controlling volume and price, and the blue and white 20 is still the main sales force. The sales volume of the blue and white 20 is expected to exceed 4,000 tons.
Bophin products have experienced market introduction for four or five years, and the sales growth rate in 19 is expected to reach about 50%.
Bofen products are well-known and occupy less sales resources. At present, they have been successfully introduced into the country from the Shanxi market.
On the whole, the company’s blue and white, Panama, and Bfen products have been introduced into the national market, the product 杭州桑拿 price bands are complete, and the level is reasonable.
In-depth docking with China Resources channels and continuous enhancement of synergies The company’s current cooperation and docking with China Resources is continuing to advance. The core goals of the two parties’ cooperation are to improve corporate culture and strengthen market-oriented management methods and management mechanisms.
The short-term goal is to strengthen the smooth connection between the company’s sales end and China Resources Channel.
In the first three quarters of 19, the company completed the docking of about 5% of China Resources’ channels. It is expected that the company’s reorganization and China Resources will be effectively docked in management, marketing and other aspects in 2020 to achieve resource sharing, business collaboration, and effectively improve the quality and efficiency of mixed reform.
Third, profit forecast and investment recommendations. Considering the impact of the epidemic, we slightly cut the company’s 2020 performance forecast.
It is expected to earn 119 in 2019-2021.
200,000 yuan, +26 a year.
6% / + 15.
1% / + 16.
Net profit attributable to listed companies 20.
30 trillion, +37 a year.
6% / + 13.7% / + 23.
0%, equivalent to EPS2.
34 yuan / 2.
66 yuan / 3.
27 yuan, corresponding PE is 35X / 31X / 25X.
At present, the estimated value of the liquor industry is about 29X, and the company’s estimate is slightly higher than the industry estimate. Considering that the company’s main business expansion is good, the long-term growth is highly certain, and it maintains a “recommended” rating.
Fourth, risks indicate that economic growth is dragging demand, performance release is slower than expected, and food safety issues.